Global Macroeconomic & Risk Terminal
Scale: 0 (Risk-On) – 100 (Crisis)
Threshold: 0.50%
Inversion Indicator
Taylor Rule Gap
Global FX Anchor
Quantitative framework
The US growth and inflation signals behind the broader economic outlook.
Growth × Inflation
Directional breadth across observable US growth and inflation indicators.
Growth breadth
Inflation breadth
Breadth scores range from -100 to +100 and measure the direction of the underlying indicators, not forecast probabilities.
What changed?
Latest levels and recent directional changes used in the regime framework.
Monthly seasonally adjusted data; publication dates vary by country.
Optional market context
Compare the latest dollar, yield, commodity and credit moves without repeating the charts above.
Short-term market response to macroeconomic conditions. Directions are descriptive, not trading recommendations.
SethiMacro is continuously evolving. Let me know what data pillar or currency pair we should build next.
Tracks the percentage of the labor force actively looking for work. Comparing the US, UK, and Eurozone reveals divergence in global economic health and central bank policy timing. A rising trend here is the ultimate leading indicator for interest rate cuts.
Measures the year-over-year change in average hourly earnings. This is heavily monitored due to the Wage-Price Spiral: if wages grow too fast, corporations raise product prices to compensate, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat sticky inflation.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey tracks the total number of unfilled jobs in the US. Extremely high openings indicate a "tight" labor market where workers have leverage to demand higher pay. The Fed targets lower JOLTS numbers to safely declare victory over inflation.
The holy grail of monthly economic data. It represents the total number of paid workers added to the US economy (excluding farm employees). A massive "beat" above Wall Street consensus can send bond yields soaring, while a severe "miss" instantly sparks recession fears.
Tracks the benchmark interest rates set by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Divergence here drives global currency flows. If the Fed keeps rates higher than the ECB, capital floods into the US Dollar seeking higher yield.
Compares the yield on 10-Year government bonds (US Treasuries, UK Gilts, German Bunds). A widening gap between the US and Europe signals stronger US economic growth expectations and acts as a massive leading indicator for global exchange rates.
Tracks the deterioration of purchasing power. Headline CPI is what consumers feel. Core PCE strips out volatile food/energy and is the Fed's preferred metric. PPI measures wholesale costs at the factory door, acting as a leading indicator for future CPI spikes.
The ultimate drivers of asset valuation. Breakevens show the market's expected inflation rate over the next 10 years. Real Yields (TIPS) show the true cost of borrowing after adjusting for inflation. When Real Yields surge, tech stocks and gold typically sell off heavily.
The broadest measure of economic activity, adjusted for inflation. Tracking the US, UK, and Eurozone side-by-side reveals global economic divergence. A slowing GDP combined with high inflation forces central banks into a difficult "Stagflation" corner.
Measures the raw output of factories, mines, and utilities in the United States. Because industrial activity is highly cyclical, a sharp contraction here serves as a reliable coincident indicator that a corporate earnings recession is underway.
Consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of the entire US GDP. Retail Sales provides a real-time snapshot of the consumer's wallet. If retail spending remains resilient despite high interest rates, the economy typically avoids recession.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is a leading indicator. It doesn't tell us what consumers spent yesterday—it predicts what they will spend tomorrow. Plummeting sentiment often precedes a severe pullback in retail sales and broader economic contraction.
Displays government bond yields across time horizons. A normal curve slopes upward. An inverted or shifting curve indicates rapidly changing expectations for growth and Fed policy.
Tracks the difference between the 10-Year and 2-Year Treasury yields. When the spread drops below the 0.0% zero-line, the curve is inverted—Wall Street's most closely watched recession indicator.
A composite quantitative indicator synthesizing three distinct macroeconomic vulnerabilities into a single systemic score:
Scores above 65 signal elevated recession probability and systemic market stress.
The benchmark price for global light sweet crude. Energy prices act as the primary catalyst for headline inflation swings and consumer discretionary spending drag.
Gold trades inversely to real bond yields and sovereign currency purchasing power. It serves as institutional hedge against inflation, geopolitical risk, and monetary debasement.
Measures the yield premium junk-rated corporate bonds pay above US Treasuries. Rapid widening signals liquidity shortages and impending corporate distress before it reflects in equities.